In what represents its first estimate of the total deaths globally from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) of the University of Washington indicated that 4 million people will die globally by the January 1 to maintain the current situation.
In Mexico, the death toll, in the worst case scenario, would be 157 thousand 264, which would make it the sixth in the world. At best, it projects 130,540 deaths in the country, placing it in fourth place in the world. In the most likely scenario, the projection is 138,828.
The IHME indicates that almost 700 thousand lives would be saved between now and January 1 with measures of proven efficacy, such as the use of face masks and social distancing, according to a statement released this Thursday.
The United States, in the best scenario, would register 288,381 deaths; in the most probable scenario, 410,441 and, in the worst, 620 thousand 29.
The worst scenario, explains the IHME, implies that the use of face masks remains at current levels and that governments continue to relax social distancing measures, which would translate into 4 million deaths by the end of the year.
The best scenario, with 2 million deaths, would be if the use of face masks becomes practically universal and governments apply social distancing measures when their daily death rate exceeds 8 per million.
The most likely scenario is in which the use of face masks and other mitigation measures do not change, resulting in an estimated 2.8 million deaths.