According to the consultancy led by Luis Carlos Ugalde, the Electoral Tribunal has sufficient elements to modify the ruling issued by the General Council of the INE on Free Mexico.
For the electoral consulting company Integralia, the refusal to register the organizations México Libre and Redes Sociales Progresistas is weak and does not rule out that at least for the organization chaired by Margarita Zavala, the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judicial Power (TEPJF) revoke the decision of the National Electoral Institute (INE), so that it can run as a political party in the 2021 elections.
In a report from the consultancy headed by former electoral councilor Luis Carlos Ugalde, he argues that “the criteria used to deny him registration are weak and may be rejected by the TEPJF”, because “on the issue of unidentified contributions it is not proven that the origin is illegal and the contributions had already been sanctioned in the audit file with an economic fine that was considered ‘ordinary serious’, that is, a sanction that did not have the magnitude to annul the registration ”.
Therefore, says the consultant, “it is not ruled out that the Court revokes the decision and that Mexico Libre may contend in the 2021 electoral process.”
In the case of Progressive Social Networks, Integralia considers, “there is no evidence that union members were coerced or pressured to join.”
However, it acknowledges that “for the majority of the directors the presence of members of a union was enough to annul the registration.”
In addition, he estimates that the beneficiaries of the INE’s refusal to register Mexico Libre are the PAN and Movimiento Ciudadano, since they were their competition in the dispute for votes, especially among the middle classes.
In Integralia’s analysis he mentions that “patronage prevails in party formation. As suggested by the recent INE resolution on inspection, at least two of the organizations seeking registration as political parties would have been created by corporate or union groups and not as citizen demands ”.
Regarding Encuentro Solidario, he considers that if it remains as the only new party with registration, it would receive 41 million pesos in the remainder of 2020 and more than 168 million pesos by 2021, in addition to seeking to “capitalize on the popularity of the President. Although it could subtract some votes from Morena, it is estimated that, if the vote is reached to have elected deputies, they could ally themselves with the Morena bench ”.
Integralia warns that at least four parties – PES, PRD, PT and PVEM – could lose registration in the 2021 midterm elections and, therefore, would not participate in the 2024 presidential elections.
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