In Latin America and not the Caribbean, more than 3.2 thousand people test positive for COVID-19 and 118,000 morreram from doença até or moment. A magnitude of the economic and social consequences of the crisis is yet to be seen. The region is not yet in the pandemic phase. This is what Alexandre Meira da Rosa, Vice-President of Countries of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) accredits. However, the organization is not thinking at the moment that it is time to repair the damage.
As a post-covid future, the IDB prepares an analysis for each sub-region: Central America, Andean countries, Southern Cone and the Caribbean. In each study period, a diagnosis of the situation is observed and the opportunities for action for the newly growing region are observed. As new technologies, which are important in confining times, allow Meira da Rosa to provide comments from the other side of the Atlantic on the main results of these publications.
Ask. What are the most important conclusions about these reports?
Reply. At first, the region could be facing an economic situation that was more complex for decades. As projeções de growth de Fundo Monetário Internacional estimates remain for this year 9.5 of GDP. Embora projete growth of 3.8% for the next year, see from a very low base. There is an issue that complicates the situation: the countries are not there, in contrast to other areas of the world, no recovery period. They are still in an emergency in the task of giving a response, the curves are not stabilized. Aliás, we are selling an increase in cases and deaths.
P. How is that reply?
R. We saw that the policies that were implemented in the region to respond to the emergency are generally, from an economic point of view, correct. São short-term aid mechanisms to guarantee the return of two more vulnerabilities and support to companies facing such a large supply shock. E, because of these policies are necessary, no time limits for or which foram is protected, they are due to limitations: we will not solve structural problems that the region has faced before the pandemic and the outgoing pandemic, such as informality, low produtividade of work and business , unbalanced fiscais and high level of endividamento; The second is that they are important measures now, but you will not sustain them for the long term.
P. What challenges will I face in the long run?
R. A demonic pandemic, not gross state, some vulnerabilities of the region and lack of preparation to face this type of external shocks. As exports are highly concentrated in few products, the health systems are very fragile and the fragility of the social and productive fabric has become more acute, the social protection networks in the existing region, but were very frágeis. The same can be said of the productive development: more than 60% of the formal enterprise seen from small and medium companies, and we saw that the regional systems of support for these companies were very frigid.
P. What soluções propõem?
R. We see three main lines of action for recovery in the future. First, to continue supporting the most vulnerable population in the middle class that has just emerged in the region in recent years, to increase demand. Second, to support the real economy through the protection of entrepreneurship, especially for small and medium enterprises. And thirdly, to maintain macro-fiscal stability. We are going to see a deterioration of the fiscal position of two countries, we are going to see a dim, and inevitably short term; but it is very important not to ficar fora of control.
P. Do you have an excess of trust in the region to respond to the new coronavirus?
R. It is dúvida, as in any region of the world, a reaction was faster or of better quality in some countries than in others. But we work with an unknown reality. Or that we see that the quality of the reaction does not matter, rather than the region entering a pandemic in a situation that is not very favorable, with high inequalities that become more profound and more evident. Let’s go sair dessa crise mais unequal, poorer and with deeper imbalances. We have to be clear to guide us to react in the coming years.
P. How to combine emergency response with long term solutions?
R. Eu não acho que as duas coisas sejam incompatíveis. Here, or the role of institutions like us and important, we are not in the management of immediate problems and we have a structural vision to continue thinking about the future, at the same time as we support the countries in their immediate actions and redirect resources. We put on the table the pending transformation agendas that are necessary for the future. It is here that multilateral institutions play a fundamental role in seeking immediate urgencies for challenges that will come later or later.
P. As a region and eminently of medium income, is there or risk of being left out for two global planes of international aid?
R. That a region of average income is true when we analyze the aggregate numbers, but we finally turn out to be profoundly diverse in Latin America. The realities of Haiti and Chile are completely different. Countries such as Brazil, which is continental, we will use average income for the aggregate numbers, but we have operations in all provinces, and those that have human development indices similar to Haiti’s years. So, first of all, I want to place this region council of average income in xeque. What we are selling is that, not the end of the process, which I hope will follow soon, will be one of the regions most impacted by the epidemic. The three major economies, which are Mexico, Brazil and Argentina, are going to lose more than 9% of their GDP each. Isso will translate into greater migration and insecurity. If the impact is not justified by paying attention to the international community, it will be difficult to find any such arguments.
P. More or secretary-general of the UN, Antonio Guterres, you have to make a special request for support to Latin America.
R. Or I appeal do secretário-geral is exactly not that I just said. The international community recognizes the importance of supporting the region; We saw isso in our partners, shareholders in the bank region. We share the secretariat-general reading on social fragility in the region and the importance of supporting the most vulnerable groups. We also saw a medium class that had not progressed in two years 2000, but was very vulnerable. It is very important to keep on demand in the region. We also share their analysis of what the impact of the pandemic was not the same for homens and women. The shapes are more shaven, different hairs to the family and also due to a substantial increase in violence. I am very young because I have many more limited options for professional placement. Many two business services from the region will never return again, and this can be increased or pre-paid.
P. Even with a diverse region, is it possible to implement measures at the regional level?
R. Sim. Or in the case of a pandemic, it is a perfect example because the virus does not respect borders and we learn that maintaining the health systems and controlling sanitation is a regional question. It is not just a question of serving the local population. Ter systems de saúde fortes e will prepare for these events and a regional public bem. Outra questão é a das vacinas. How do you guarantee that a region, not what do you imagine a bullfight will be, can you position yourself to guarantee or access these cows and access costs? Given the large number of countries we have, it will be more effective to deal with this question from a regional point of view than an individual one.
P. Na your opinion, what horizon for a post-covid-19 recovery in the region?
R. It will be slower and longer than initially expected. Many questions are the world going to recover in a curve in the shape of a V or U. We certify that it will be a recovery in the shape of a U. But, more than economic indicators, we are concerned as your partners. You first reagem faster than seconds. And yet we did not see the whole extent of the social impact in the region. Therefore, the economic recovery will be slower and longer. And we certify that the social will take much more time, mainly for some of the actions that were taken ago not short term but not maintained, more time than to be worked not half term. No BID, we are preparing to spend 43% more this year than not last year. This substantial increase does not support that we are going to give to the region. And we are preparing to operate nesses resposta níveis for more some years.
P. The UN estimates that globally, two decades of development have been lost. Do you have an estimate of this respect for the region?
R. It is difficult to measure how much time we will lose. More or more, there will be a deep loss of social ganhos. That is why we insist that social security networks must be a focus of public policies for the next few years, because the social impact is profound and we have not seen an internal film yet.