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Mexico would close 2020 with 1 million deaths; covid-19 is shaping up to be the leading cause of death


Faced with the scourge of the pandemic, this year is set to be the deadliest for Mexico.

According to Inegi, last year 747 thousand 784 deaths occurred, but in nine months of 2020, from January 1 to September 26, there were 718 thousand 090, when 524 thousand 920 were expected.

These 193,170 extra deaths, recognized by the authorities, represent 718 per day, 30 per hour or one every two minutes.

“Almost 200 thousand more deaths is chilling. This year will mark a dimension of death and disease out of all the demographic inertia that we have lived in the last 30, 50 years, “he told Excelsior Mario Luis Fuentes, researcher at the University Program for Development Studies, UNAM.

He calculated that a million deaths would be reached by the end of the year. Covid-19 will probably be the first cause of death in the country.

Hospital reconversion to prioritize the pandemic, he said, meant that care and treatment for chronic degenerative diseases was reduced. In addition, emergencies such as accidents or alcoholic congestion no longer reached the hospitals for fear of con.tagios.

They expect 2020 to close with 1 million deaths

A UNAM specialist points out that covid-19 may be the first cause of deaths at the end of the year; the increase in deaths was not only due to the virus, but also because other illnesses were not addressed after the conversion.

2020 will become the deadliest year in Mexico due to the impact of the covid-19 pandemic.

During the health emergency there have been an excess of 718 deaths a day, 30 every hour, one every 2 minutes.

This has caused that, at this time, more deaths have already occurred than during all of 2019.

The latest estimate of excess mortality at the national level made by an inter-institutional group reports 193,170 unexpected deaths between January and September of this year.

“Almost 200 thousand more deaths is a chilling number. 2020 is a year that will mark a dimension of death and disease out of all the demographic inertia that we have experienced in the last 30, 50 years “, said Mario Luis Fuentes Alcalá, researcher at the University Program for Development Studies (PUED) of the UNAM.

In an interview with Excelsior estimated that one million deaths could be reached by the end of the year, with covid-19, probably, as the first cause of death in the country.

“The effect of the hospital reconversion for covid had a cost, because it implied that many of the services that were had for cardiology, for nutrition, for cancer were reconverted, it is not that there was accessory capacity, you had to take what you had and make it covid. What could that have implied? That attention to chronic degenerative diseases was reduced, the detection of diseases such as cancer was reduced, for example, many emergency issues also no longer reached hospitals for fear of contagion, such as congestion alcoholic, drug crisis, violence or accidents. It is clear that there was a greater amount of illness and death in these eight months due to the conversion ”, he stated.

According to the statistical bulletin on excess mortality from all causes during the covid-19 emergency, 410,539 men died in the first nine months of the year, 122,397 more than were expected to die in that period. say, 455 excess male deaths, every day; 19 every hour.

In addition, 63,117 more deaths than expected among women were registered, equivalent to 234 deaths of Mexican women in excess per day or 10 per hour.

94,855 older adults died more than expected, as well as 77,146 Mexicans between 45 and 64 years old, and 12,879 between 20 and 44 years old.

The data accumulated in the National Epidemiological Surveillance System registered a total of 78 thousand 449 deaths of people with a confirmatory result of the SARS-CoV-2 virus until September, which is equivalent to 40.6% of the excess mortality from all causes.

According to the inter-institutional group that analyzes excess mortality, the remaining percentage could be directly or indirectly related to the pandemic.

“One of the possible explanations for the increase in deaths is precisely because detection was reduced and treatments for various diseases decreased. Confinement and hospital reconversion had a huge health cost this year and it must be mentioned, ”he said.

“What the covid does is make visible the social determinants of illness and death. The pandemic generated a synergy with structural situations of poverty, marginalization, overcrowding, a huge lack of income and this synergy obviously caused what we know, which is that in the most vulnerable places is where there have been more deaths, because there it is again the issue of structural inequality in health services ”, raised Fuentes Alcalá.

The biggest issue, he warned, is that the budget that is being proposed to allocate to health in 2021 is incoherent, since it does not respond to the critical situation that is being experienced, which would lead to another year with excess disease and death.

“The pandemic does not allow austerity”

“The pandemic is not giving in and it is not going to give in and it will undoubtedly have an answer when there is a vaccine, but the structural chaos of death and disease that it is causing now does not allow austerity. It is essential that Congress review in detail and make an effort of critical reflection to reduce the amounts to emblematic investment projects of this administration and assign them to articulate the health system as soon as possible. It is not facing the pandemic itself, it is facing the excess of death, because the deficiencies were not structurally corrected, investments were made to face the covid at the cost of treating other diseases, and these almost 200 thousand more deaths tell us of the magnitude of the crisis ”, concluded Fuentes Alcalá.


Epidemiological week 1 to 39 (from January 1 to September 26, 2020) (269 days), according to the Inter-Institutional Group.

  • Expected deaths in 2020: 524,920
  • Deaths in 2020: 718,090
  • Total excess mortality from all causes:193,170
  • Percentage of excess mortality from all causes: 36.8%
  • Week of onset of excess mortality: week 13
  • The week with the highest percentage: week 29 (103.2%) From July 12 to July 18.
  • Deaths in the SISVER with a positive result for SARS-CoV-2: 78,449