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Predictions give victory to Biden


MEXICO CITY.

One day before the 59th election in the United States, candidates Donald Trump and Joe Biden accelerate their last days of campaigns.

Currently, forecasts and polls give the Democrat the winner.

According to an electoral model developed by the fivethirtyeight.com analysis center, the Democratic candidate would win in 89 out of 100 scenarios. For his part, the Republican would win 11 out of a hundred.

This model is based on 40 thousand simulations to see who wins the most times.

According to the forecast of national polls prepared by the RealClearPolitics analysis center, the former vice president adds an intention to vote of 51.1 percent, while Trump adds a preference of 43.9. That is, a difference of 7.2 points.

During the last month, marked by the contagion of coronavirus from President Donald Trump, preferences have varied.

On October 11, the difference was 10.3 points, the biggest advantage for the Democrat so far this year. Since then the gap has closed.

In another RealClearPolitics projection on the Electoral College, Biden would get 232 votes, while Trump would get 125. He highlights that 181 are classified as unpredictable. To win it is necessary to add 270.

In addition, each community has reported their preferences.

In the last 25 years, more and more Latinos identify with the Democrats, and today, 63 percent of this community is with this party. The trend is similar between Asians and African Americans.

For their part, in key states Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, there is also an advantage for Biden, with 49.2 percent, over 45.5 percent for Trump, according to the average of Real Clear Politics.

Every day is a reminder of how high the stakes are, how far the other side will go to try to suppress the outcome, especially here in Philadelphia, ”Biden said yesterday.

For his part, Donald Trump linked the democrat to former Cuban president Fidel Castro. “Biden is a proven Fidel Castro puppet. Vote for Trump, ”he tweeted.

FROM THE TRAJINERAS, SUPPORT THE REPUBLICAN

The representative of the Republican Party in Mexico, Larry Rubin, expressed his confidence that President Donald Trump will continue in the White House for another four years and with this the relationship with Mexico will be strengthened.

Before starting a vehicular caravan from the Xochimilco area, south of the capital, in favor of the candidacy of the fellow New York businessman, Rubin stressed that our country will win if Trump is reelected, since the work on the common agenda on the essential relationship issues.

It is not by luck that Mexico has become the first commercial partner of the United States last year with President Donald Trump, something that never happened with Biden and Obama in previous years and the truth is that the relationship with Biden-Obama was ignored. In fact, if you go to Biden’s page, he never talks about Mexico and Trump does talk about Mexico several times, ”he said.

Rubin affirmed that the conditions exist for Trump to obtain the highest number of votes against, despite what the polls say.

The vehicular rally started from the Xochimilco pier in Cuemanco with several trajineras as a frame, one of them bore the name of the US president who is seeking re-election, and the presence of more than a hundred participants who toured roads such as the Periférico Sur.

-Enrique Sánchez




www.excelsior.com.mx