3 years of homicides and clandestine graves; they analyze cases in the Bajío
In the last three years for which official information is available from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), it is confirmed that Guanajuato became, abruptly, the most violent state in Mexico.
The recent findings of dozens of clandestine graves in the municipality of Salvatierra, in that entity, with a confirmed number of 62 bodies recovered and a set of more graves in the municipality of Cortazar, on the border with Salvatierra, where the unofficial figure is of at least 30 localized bodies, make it necessary to pay attention and analyze what is happening in that territorial space of the country.
The bloody history that is being written in Guanajuato has an origin that goes back 10 years. Since 2010, it has registered an unprecedented escalation of violence; According to Inegi data, it went from 446 homicides in 2010 to 802 in 2014, that is, there was an 80% increase in the number of annual cases in just five years.
From 2015 to 2019, the entity became, literally, hell: 969 intentional homicides in 2015; thousand 231 in 2016; and two 241 in 2017. As can be seen, if only these years are taken as a reference, the increase in the figure for 2017, compared to 2015, is 131.2% in just three years.
Finally, for 2018, the Inegi count is 3,412 intentional homicides and for 2019 of 3,855 cases; 297% more homicides compared to the figure registered in 2015.
By 2020, according to the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System, the figures amount to 3,438 intentional homicides until September, that is, in the first nine months of this year the annualized figure for 2018 has already been exceeded, and This average does not vary significantly, equivalent to 382 cases per month, it is expected that 2020 will close with 4,584 victims. If this figure is confirmed, it would be the second highest for a single year, in a single state, in the history of Mexico, as it would be lower than only the 6,421 registered in Chihuahua in 2010.
Pits: the realm of the macabre
According to the report coordinated by Fabrizio Larusso, Jorge Luis Reyes and Óscar Elton, from the Universidad Iberoamericana de León and Data Cívica, in Guanajuato, from 2009 to July 2020, the existence of at least 109 clandestine graves had been documented in the entity, of which 268 bodies had been recovered. This has occurred in 26 of the 46 municipalities that make up the entity; In addition, there are 10 other municipalities with high probabilities that in the short term the existence of this gloomy reality will also be confirmed.
Graves and homicides: a close link
Although it may seem obvious, it is necessary to demonstrate based on statistics the close relationship that exists in Guanajuato between the increase in the number of intentional homicides and the findings of clandestine graves. Thus, by means of a regression analysis, what is found is an R squared value of .823, taking homicides as a predictive variable and graves as a dependent variable. In other words, the greater the number of homicides, the greater the number of finds, of clandestine graves.
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