November 03, 2020
During the next few hours the future of the United States and the most influential election worldwide are debated.
Americans will decide between four more years of political obscurantism or a blurred promise in which getting Donald Trump out of Washington outweighs anything else.
The average American elector does not understand that their suffrage will change a person’s day-to-day life in Iran or their ability to feed their family; the innocence of millions of humans.
He has no idea that these elections impact the future of multilateralism, the suffering of migrants, racism, international cooperation, economic warfare, climate change or even the fight against the covid-19 pandemic.
THE PRICE OF HEGEMONY
Despite the detractors of US hegemony and those seduced by theories of decline (such as those that did not prosper by Paul Kennedy), after the pandemic there is no issue that matters and impacts more internationally than the results of the day electoral in the United States.
It would seem that the delusional declinists are unaware that 90% of global transactions are made in dollars, not in yuan, euros or bitcoins.
It is decades before China can match America’s military and technological advancement. It is not a matter of perceptions, it is a reality.
No power has accumulated – except imperial Rome – the economic, technological and military power of the United States and, unfortunately, a fierce interventionism in all the nations that threaten its interests. As a sample, Iraq or Afghanistan, Cuba or Iran.
Donald Trump represents an entire era; a dark moment in domestic and foreign politics, in which paranoia, xenophobia, exacerbated nationalisms, protectionism, insult and violence, revenge and fear are the bargaining chip. Also the protagonism, the ridicule, the eccentricity and the comedy. The complete reality show.
On the other side is Joe Biden, a not very charismatic politician, with quite confused ideas and an even more controversial family. A politician who last week needed President Barack Obama to give his campaign notoriety.
Who is better? Probably none, perhaps the answer lies in: Will Americans tolerate four more years of Trump’s eccentricities and shame? Celebrities, opinion leaders, influencers and countless famous people invite you to align with Biden. The polls favor the Democratic candidate with about nine points; but the last decade refutes the polls time and time again.
Do you remember the same show to support Hillary Clinton? They also thought that she would be the winner of the election and she was not. Today (although less likely), Trump may surprise again. Special attention should be paid to Florida, Arizona and Pennsylvania. Texas, a Republican stronghold, might surprise us by turning blue.
Mexico, the southern neighbor and historic backyard, will also be heavily influenced by the election.
If Trump wins, two things can happen: on the one hand, a strengthening of the good relationship with Q4 or the return to the thorny relationship, where it would be shown that he used the “friendship” with López Obrador as a mere convenient strategy. Do you think they are really friends?
If Biden wins, the scenario would be more ambiguous, since the Democratic governments have never been good friends of Mexico. Both scenarios, quite hopeless.
Statistics and my very personal illusions trust that Joe Biden (with his grayish personality) will reach the presidency of the United States.
My pessimistic / realistic self assures that the fateful 2020 has to end with the re-election of Donald Trump to crown misfortune.
Dear reader, we will talk about it next Thursday.
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